{"id":3480,"date":"2026-11-06T15:46:37","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T15:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/swissdaily.ch\/canicule-2026-suisse-2\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T15:46:37","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T15:46:37","slug":"canicule-2026-suisse-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/swissdaily.ch\/de\/canicule-2026-suisse-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Canicule 2026 : pr\u00e8s de 1260 d\u00e9c\u00e8s attribuables \u00e0 la chaleur en Suisse, un bilan comparable \u00e0 2003"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>L&rsquo;Institut suisse de m\u00e9decine tropicale et de sant\u00e9 publique (<strong>Swiss TPH<\/strong>) a publi\u00e9 jeudi ses estimations provisoires sur la surmortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9e \u00e0 la canicule de l&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9 2026 : entre mai et ao\u00fbt, quelque <strong>1257 d\u00e9c\u00e8s<\/strong> sont statistiquement imputables aux fortes temp\u00e9ratures en Suisse, soit 14 d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour 100 000 habitants et 5,5 % de l&rsquo;ensemble des d\u00e9c\u00e8s enregistr\u00e9s sur cette p\u00e9riode. Ce rapport, r\u00e9alis\u00e9 sur mandat de l&rsquo;<strong>Office f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la sant\u00e9 publique (OFSP)<\/strong> et de l&rsquo;<strong>Office f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de l&rsquo;environnement (OFEV)<\/strong>, place l&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9 2026 au rang des \u00e9pisodes caniculaires les plus meurtriers depuis le d\u00e9but des relev\u00e9s m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques en Suisse, \u00e0 un niveau comparable \u00e0 celui de la canicule historique de 2003.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9 2026 s&rsquo;est officiellement impos\u00e9 comme le plus chaud jamais mesur\u00e9 en Suisse, d\u00e9passant le pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent record \u00e9tabli en 2003, selon les donn\u00e9es de <strong>M\u00e9t\u00e9oSuisse<\/strong>. Le rapport provisoire de Swiss TPH, relay\u00e9 en premier par les journaux du groupe Tamedia, s&rsquo;appuie sur un croisement des temp\u00e9ratures journali\u00e8res mesur\u00e9es par M\u00e9t\u00e9oSuisse et des statistiques de mortalit\u00e9 tenues par l&rsquo;<strong>Office f\u00e9d\u00e9ral de la statistique (OFS)<\/strong>. Les donn\u00e9es de mortalit\u00e9 analys\u00e9es demeurent provisoires, les d\u00e9clarations de d\u00e9c\u00e8s parvenant parfois avec retard aux autorit\u00e9s comp\u00e9tentes, et une version consolid\u00e9e et d\u00e9taill\u00e9e de l&rsquo;\u00e9tude est attendue au printemps 2027, int\u00e9grant notamment les donn\u00e9es du mois de septembre, encore absentes du bilan actuel.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>La structure d\u00e9mographique des victimes confirme une vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 fortement concentr\u00e9e dans les tranches d&rsquo;\u00e2ge les plus avanc\u00e9es : environ 85 % des d\u00e9c\u00e8s recens\u00e9s concernent des personnes de <strong>75 ans et plus<\/strong>. Ce constat illustre une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 bien document\u00e9e dans la litt\u00e9rature \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique, \u00e0 savoir que la chaleur extr\u00eame agit comme un facteur aggravant pour des organismes dont les capacit\u00e9s thermor\u00e9gulatrices sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 fragilis\u00e9es par l&rsquo;\u00e2ge ou la comorbidit\u00e9. En termes de risques naturels, la chaleur repr\u00e9sente en Suisse le danger le plus l\u00e9tal, devant les inondations ou les glissements de terrain.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;analyse de Swiss TPH distingue plusieurs seuils de temp\u00e9rature pour quantifier la contribution de chaque type de journ\u00e9e \u00e0 la mortalit\u00e9 totale. Les journ\u00e9es dites chaudes, correspondant \u00e0 une temp\u00e9rature moyenne comprise entre 25 et 27 degr\u00e9s, soit le niveau 3 des alertes canicule de M\u00e9t\u00e9oSuisse, ont caus\u00e9 environ <strong>485 d\u00e9c\u00e8s<\/strong>. Les journ\u00e9es tr\u00e8s chaudes, au-del\u00e0 de 27 degr\u00e9s et correspondant au niveau 4 des alertes, en ont provoqu\u00e9 quelque <strong>400<\/strong>. Les <strong>373 d\u00e9c\u00e8s restants<\/strong> sont survenus lors de journ\u00e9es \u00e0 chaleur dite mod\u00e9r\u00e9e, en dessous du seuil de 25 degr\u00e9s, ce qui souligne que m\u00eame des temp\u00e9ratures inf\u00e9rieures aux seuils d&rsquo;alerte officiels exercent une pression mesurable sur la mortalit\u00e9. Au total, environ 70 % des d\u00e9c\u00e8s attribuables \u00e0 la chaleur co\u00efncident avec des journ\u00e9es chaudes ou tr\u00e8s chaudes.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Ce bilan provisoire d\u00e9passe largement les projections communiqu\u00e9es en septembre dernier par le <strong>Conseil f\u00e9d\u00e9ral<\/strong>, qui anticipait alors une surmortalit\u00e9 d&rsquo;environ 570 d\u00e9c\u00e8s suppl\u00e9mentaires chez les personnes de plus de 65 ans. L&rsquo;\u00e9cart entre cette estimation initiale et les 1257 d\u00e9c\u00e8s d\u00e9sormais comptabilis\u00e9s t\u00e9moigne de l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 exceptionnelle de l&rsquo;\u00e9pisode caniculaire de 2026 et de la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 mod\u00e9liser en temps r\u00e9el l&rsquo;impact sanitaire de temp\u00e9ratures sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent dans l&rsquo;histoire m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique helv\u00e9tique.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&rsquo;Institut suisse de m\u00e9decine tropicale et de sant\u00e9 publique (Swiss TPH) a publi\u00e9 jeudi ses estimations provisoires sur la surmortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9e \u00e0 la canicule de l&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9 2026 : entre mai et ao\u00fbt, quelque 1257 d\u00e9c\u00e8s sont statistiquement imputables aux fortes temp\u00e9ratures en Suisse, soit 14 d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour 100 000 habitants et 5,5 % de l&rsquo;ensemble [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites","category-suisse"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canicule 2026 : 1260 d\u00e9c\u00e8s en Suisse, bilan de 2003<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Swiss TPH estime 1257 d\u00e9c\u00e8s li\u00e9s \u00e0 la canicule 2026 en Suisse. 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